Attendances : Part 1 (The Problem)
The first of a three-part series looking at Barnet’s home attendances
For all the many memorable moments in Barnet’s recent seasons, these moments have not been memorable for many. At best, the club’s attendances are a major worry; at worst, they are a growing threat to the club competitiveness in the upper half of the National League, let alone the EFL.
Dean Brennan, his staff and the current squad have eased many of the anxieties Bees’ fans previously felt when looking at tables and numbers. Yet even one of Barnet’s most successful managers in recent decades is struggling to fix arguably the most important metric for sustainable success in lower-league football – the amount of people coming through the gate.
A cocktail for the worried Barnet fan has always included a healthy dose of concerns about attendance – mixed with various on-field matters, a dash of frustrations about the Hive and, of course, garnished with Underhill nostalgia. Increasingly though, it’s a drink where the first ingredient dominates all others.
Average home attendances, including away fans (Downhill Second Half, 2023)
Starting in 1986-87 with the creation of the Vauxhall Conference, the story of Barnet’s home attendances has been one of steady decline - punctuated by the odd superb season, charismatic manager, or great escape.
Average home fan attendances only (Downhill Second Half, 2023)
Only twice in the last 20 seasons has the average number of home fans broken the 2,000 mark. Promotion campaigns, Underhill’s farewell and relegation battles have provided the odd fluctuation, but the trends at both Underhill and the Hive are far from promising.
Average Underhill (2004-2013) and Hive (2013-2023)attendances (Downhill Second Half, 2023)
No discussion of attendance can reasonably happen without discussing the move to Hive. Identifying its true impact is made harder by the various promotions and relegations in between, but a reasonable estimation the loss of 300-400 regular fans in the years since.
Yet the starkest reality lies not in comparing Barnet’s attendance over the seasons or between stadiums, but in looking at the broader changes of clubs in the National League over the last decade.
% attendance chance between 2012-13 and 2022-23. Earliest data for all clubs could be found in 2012-13. Barnet (This) refers to data so far this season. Dorking’s growth is capped by the graphs as it is over 700% (Football Web Pages, 2023)
Between 2012-13 to the end of last season, Barnet’s attendance has declined more rapidly than any other National League club. Perhaps 12-13 - Underhill’s farewell season in the football league, could be considered an anomaly. But starting the count in 13-14 would still see Barnet place in the bottom 3 – even accounting for the distortionary effect of the 3,700 at the Boreham Wood playoff game.
19/24 National League teams have added over 500 fans to the gate since 2012/13. That includes sides who have suffered multiple relegations in that time such as Oldham, Southend, Rochdale, Chesterfield, Hartlepool.
A cursory look at the chart above might suggest London being a factor, but the data is equally concerning in the capital when looking at similar league sides and local clubs.
% attendance change for selected London clubs (12-13 to 22-23) (Football Web Pages, 2023)
Perhaps more worryingly, the usual solution to bumping up attendance – having an excellent team on the pitch, isn’t working as well as it used to. Even as Brennan’s boys strut their stuff in the upper echelons of the National League, the Bees are still around 150 home fans down each week on the 14-15 title-winning season, and that’s discounting the Gateshead final game for a fairer comparison.
Outside the Premier League, growing attendances are the fuel for all sustainable growth in a football club. More eyeballs means more matchday revenues, sponsorship revenues and merchandise sales. Unfortunately the inverse is also true.
Notwithstanding some well-intentioned campaigns and offers (more in Part 2), the desire to increase revenue from a shrinking fanbase inevitably leads to higher prices.
Cheapest available season tickets for 23-24 season. Adult prices. Includes early bird discounts. Data from individual club websites.
It’s no coincidence that the two sides at the bottom of the attendance growth table (Barnet & Dagenham) join a club in financial disarray (Southend) at the top of the most expensive season tickets table. Indeed, in Barnet’s case, with only 2/4 stands open and a lack of terrace eliminating an option to different prices, this has additionally translated into the highest matchday prices in league.
If the picture looks bleak, it’s because it is. The club’s recent attendance history can be summarised as:
Our home fanbase is shrinking.
Almost everyone else’s is growing.
Before moving stadium, attendances were too small to sustain a league club. The average home attendance at Underhill since promotion in 04-05 was 1780.
Since moving to the Hive, attendances have fallen further.
Our prices have risen in part to mitigate this– risking a negative spiral of high prices and lower attendances.
The first part of fixing a problem is to face reality. Over the next two parts, hopefully a brighter picture can emerge.